Watching Is Not Doing

Jobs data, industry numbers, and the overall market should set your pants on fire!

I was about to pull the trigger on another frou-frou blog full of rainbows and fairy dust, and then realized there weren’t any clean buckets around, so I leaned into the numbers.

And hit them hard.

Like Remember the Titans hard. Gentlemen, leave no doubt.

I still believe the greatest strength of a leader isn’t simply understanding the numbers. It’s knowing how to drive them in the right direction. Those are two very different skills.

I’ve spoken with plenty of VCs over the years. They understand numbers, but most aren’t operators. They don’t live inside the day-to-day friction. They don’t feel what’s breaking or bending.

For Kitchen & Bath dealers, the problem has been even more basic. There simply haven’t been many numbers to look at. Most key metrics have been tracked manually, if at all. That’s why we’ve seen inflated margins, mystery losses, and the occasional unicorn sighting. “I’ve never seen a number that big” usually means something isn’t being tracked correctly.

That is changing.

Timely, accurate, visible numbers are becoming the standard. And that’s a good thing, because the environment is changing fast.

Alright. Grab some caramel tea. Put on meditation music. Remove all sharp objects from the room. Let’s talk employment.

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The Employment Reality Check

Quick note: Jan. 2026 jobs numbers will be posted after the release of this blog. After what I have been seeing lately, I am betting on black…. With more to come. But there’s already plenty to pay attention to now.

· ADP reported 22,000 new private-sector jobs in January, about half of what Wall Street expected.

· The JOLTS report showed job openings fell from 6.928 million in November 2025 to 6.542 million in December, (a drop of 386,000). Expectations were that it would be closer to 7.2 million. (that’s a huge difference!) This is the lowest level in five years.

· An estimated 1.2 million undocumented workers left the U.S. in 2025, many of whom were filling jobs.

· January layoffs were the highest since 2009, with 108,000 job cuts announced.

· 2025 totaled roughly 1.2 million layoffs, one of the highest annual figures in years.

And just to keep things interesting, millennials have now taken the number one spot in home project spending.

Which means either hell has frozen over, or HGTV has finally won.

If we ever want to sleep again, let’s move on.

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What This Means for Leaders

The tide is changing, and it will continue to change. This isn’t a collapse, but it is a shift. And shifts expose weak operations quickly.

This is the moment to tighten the ship. Run your business with more discipline, better visibility, and fewer assumptions. Before retirement starts sounding attractive tomorrow morning, here are ten questions every dealer should be able to answer.

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Ten Questions That Matter

1. What’s the difference between markup and margin?

2. Are expenses properly categorized, and do you know the benchmarks?

3. If you spend $4,000/month on marketing, how much sales volume keeps that at 3%?

4. Why does the referral ratio matter, and what’s a strong number?

5. What is your margin erosion percentage, and where is it coming from?

6. Based on hard erosion, what are your soft costs likely to be?

7. At $2M in sales with a 35% margin, what expenses allow a 10% return on sales?

8. What is your online customer experience strategy, and which phase are you in?

9. What training supports the customer experience you’re promising?

10. Can your structure and processes scale sales quickly?

Bonus: Do you have an employee journey mapped out?

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Who This Is For

Established dealers. New dealers. Designers stuck with outdated tools and no clear path forward.

You’re all invited to join our Elevate Group, where peers learn from peers. Because 2026 is the year of discovery!

Afterwards, you’ll be able to answer all ten questions with one hand tied behind your back. and more.

Things are happening. Fast. It’s time to jump in, learn what’s coming, and position yourself to not just survive, but arrive! For your people, your partners, and everyone counting on you.

If this resonates, hit my Calendly below and let’s talk.

https://calendly.com/thad-kabs

Here’s to a smarter, more disciplined 2026.