Normal Has Left the Building
The Easy Years Are Over
Hello Dear Reader,
I thought I would start off with a professional touch and then descend quickly from there. Think “Eddie the Eagle” on the Large Hill jump, but only faster. 😊
For the better part of three decades, a rising market covered a lot of “let’s make it up as we go” business habits. Not entirely their fault. Nobody ever taught them French.
When demand is strong, everyone looks smart, right? Slow processes. Hit or miss follow-up. Margins wandering around without adult supervision. Technology held together with spreadsheets, sticky notes, and one employee who knows where everything is buried... Sound familiar?
Yet somehow, business kept coming through the door.
Those days are ending.
This isn’t another sky-is-falling prediction. The kitchen and bath industry isn’t disappearing. People will still need homes, kitchens, bathrooms, additions, renovations, and places to hide the air fryer.
But the rules are changing.
Mortgage rates are currently hovering in the mid-to-upper 6% range. That may not sound catastrophic until you remember that nearly 60% of active mortgages were below 4% as recently as 2024. Millions of homeowners are effectively handcuffed to their existing houses by a monthly payment they don’t want to surrender. (The Wall Street Journal)
That creates both a problem and an opportunity.
Home sales have been hovering near their lowest levels in roughly 30 years, and builders are increasingly using incentives, price reductions, and mortgage-rate buydowns to move inventory. New homes were recently selling for about 10% less than existing homes, the widest such gap in nearly six decades. (AP News)
In other words, the housing market probably isn’t going to wake up next Tuesday, stretch, drink a cup of coffee, and announce that 2021 is back. Far from it
But when people cannot afford to move, many of them stay put and remodel.
America’s owner-occupied housing stock is now a median age of approximately 44 years. Old houses eventually demand attention. Cabinets wear out. Bathrooms become time capsules. Floor plans designed around a television the size of a microwave stop making sense. (Joint Center for Housing Studies)
Harvard’s remodeling outlook expects renovation and repair spending to continue growing through 2026, although slowly, until the 4th qtr. arrives and that slight growth cools even more… and longer than we hoped. This certainly isn’t a boom by any stretch, but it is a large, durable market supported by aging homes, homeowner equity, repairs, accessibility needs, and people deciding they would rather improve their current house than finance a different one. (Joint Center for Housing Studies)
Of course, a slower market does not reward everyone equally.
Cabinet manufacturers reported that May 2026 sales were down 8.4% compared with the prior year. That is the market sending a clear memo, and it did not include a smiley face. (KCMA)
At the same time, AI will begin reshaping industries in ways that may not initially look dramatic.
At first, it won’t look like heavy job losses. It will look like productivity is picking up and Companies will report more profits. Yea…. Except somewhere in the shadows (probably next to my exercise equipment) the employment picture looks like it’s getting a makeover by Edward Scissorhands. Not pretty. If this Friday’s job report comes in at 60k or less, and previous months get revised down some, it’s going to be a tough road sooner than later.
One person completes work that once required two. Companies hire a little less. They replace fewer people when someone leaves. Estimates become faster. Designs are checked more accurately. Customer follow-up happens automatically instead of whenever somebody remembers.
Everything appears normal until everyone realizes the math has changed on their sales numbers. It’s not 1-2 slower months, but a decline that looks like it’s going to stick around for a while. Then one of those fancy pants Dealers down the street captures one of your team members who just so happens to carry a large book of business with them. Ouch!
The companies that embrace technology, improve their processes, train their people, measure performance, and expand beyond simply selling products will become faster, more accurate, and more profitable. They will be taking market share from the businesses that found themselves too busy to muck around with AI. That free time is coming.
The ones waiting for things to “get back to normal” may discover that normal quietly packed its bags and left through the employee entrance.
So here is the uncomfortable question:
If the next five years are less about waiting for a rebound and more about adapting to a different game, what is a dealer, remodeler, manufacturer, supplier, or representative supposed to do?
No, really. What are you doing?
Get Inspired or get retired.
The choice is yours.
Wondering what any of this means for your business?
Let’s talk. thad
