Humpty Dumpty Chronicles Episode 1: The Great Wobble

Well hello again. AI has me buzzing, but the pre-Turkey Day madness might have me buzzing even more.

I was hesitant to write this blog for two reasons. The first was that it might freak people out going into the holidays. Then I remembered that I could sprint into a theater full of K&B Dealers, yell “FIRE,” and everybody would look up, shrug, and go right back to their popcorn. So I think we’re safe on that front.

The second reason was that some people might think I’m trying to steer everyone toward our solution by raising alarms. And let me be crystal clear: I’m not going to spend the energy dragging slomers (slow movers) along through this. After the conversations I’ve had over the last couple of weeks, I’ll be lucky if 3% of Dealers adopt anything new over the next two years. That’s roughly 900 Dealers.

Hang on a sec…
A giant pig just flew past my window.

Anyway — here we are.

I hit a point where I realized I need to put this out there, because something big is coming, and pretending we don’t see it won’t help anybody. And the biggest driver of what’s about to hit our industry isn’t tariffs, or rates, or overseas labor. Those are supporting characters.

The main character — the thing that starts the whole wobble — is jobs.

And we need to talk about it.

AI is everywhere right now, and everyone keeps saying, “Oh, it’s impressive, but it’s just a tool.” No. It’s a tool the same way electricity was a “tool.” AI is a job-shifting machine (one of those shifts could end up being unemployment if we aren’t careful). That’s what it’s built to do. Increase efficiency. Increase output. Reduce payroll pressure. Speed up everything. And whenever an innovation does that, jobs don’t stay the same. They shift. They always have. They always will. It’s basic business gravity.

But it’s not just AI. The economy itself is rolling over. Next year is going to be flat at best, and more likely down 10% for a lot of people. Builders will slow. Remodels will slow. Consumers are going to get nervous. You can already see it — nobody has confidence in where things are headed.

And when people don’t feel confident, they don’t buy kitchens.

But here’s the part we can’t ignore:
We are heading into a stretch where unemployment is going to start climbing. Slowly at first, then faster. And the higher it goes, the harder our industry gets hit. My plan over the next few weeks is to break down what happens at 5% unemployment, 6%, and 7%+. Because each one of those stages has real implications for our Dealers — staffing, demand, sales, margins, everything.

This isn’t fear.
It’s awareness.

If we’re going to talk about The Great Wobble, we need to start with the first big shove — jobs leaving, shifting, compressing, changing shape. AI accelerates it. The economy fuels it. Consumer uncertainty locks it in.

Humpty doesn’t fall because of tariffs.
He doesn’t fall because rates don’t drop enough.
He falls because the job market gets punched first.

The rest just shows up to help gravity finish the job.

So this is the start. The first nudge. Not a warning — just a flashlight on the crack forming under the industry’s ass. And over the next few weeks, we’re going to walk through what happens as unemployment climbs, and what that means for all of us sitting up here on this wall pretending the wind isn’t picking up.

If you want to dig into the rest of this and see where the wobble goes next, we are walking through the whole thing in a virtual workshop on December 2nd and December 4th. What is coming, what it means, how Dealers can brace for it, and what early indicators to watch. If this conversation matters to you and your team, that is where we will unpack the next steps.

More soon.
And yes — it gets interesting.

-thad